Grade every prediction against the real final score

A betting model is easy to make look good — publish the wins, quietly forget the losses. CrownWager does the opposite: every published pick is settled against the real final score, and the track record is flagged insufficient until at least 20 picks have settled.

That second rule matters as much as the first. A 7–2 record looks great and means almost nothing — small samples lie. Refusing to show a headline number until there's enough signal is the same discipline as everywhere else here: a result ships with the method and the sample that produced it, or it doesn't ship.

The honest version is less flattering and more trustworthy. See CrownWager.